Analysis of the likelihood of appeal

Hamilton County Judges

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Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases each year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases disposed, the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed, some of the cases are reversed. Kristen DelGuzzi of The Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of cases handled by Hamilton County judges over a three-year period. Shown in Table 4.8 are the results for 182,908 cases handled (disposed) by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations Court, and Municipal Court. Two of the judge (Dinkelacker and Hogan) did not serve in the same court for the entire three-year period. The purpose of the newspaper’s study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. Appeals are often the result of mistakes made by judges, and the newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing a good job and which were making too many mistakes. You are called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the likelihood of appeal and reversal for cases handled by different courts.

Managerial Report

Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the following:

1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts.

2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge.

3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge.

4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge.

5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for your choice.

Common Pleas Court

Total Cases Appealed Reversed

Judge Disposed Cases Cases

Fred Cartolano

3,037

137

12

Thomas Crush

3,372

119

10

Patrick Dinkelacker

1,258

44

8

Timothy Hogan

1,954

60

7

Robert Kraft

3,138

127

7

William Mathews

2,264

91

18

William Morrissey

3,032

121

22

Norbert Nadel

2,959

131

20

Arthur Ney, Jr.

3,219

125

14

Richard Niehaus

3,353

137

16

Thomas Nurre

3,000

121

6

John O’Connor

2,969

129

12

Robert Ruehlman

3,205

145

18

J. Howard Sundermann

955

60

10

Ann Marie Tracey

3,141

127

13

Ralph Winkler

3,089

88

6

Total

43,945

1762

199

Domestic Relations Court

Total Cases

Appealed

Reversed

Judge Disposed

Cases

Cases

Penelope Cunningham

2,729

7

1

Patrick Dinkelacker

6,001

19

4

Deborah Gaines

8,799

48

9

Ronald Panioto

12,970

32

3

Total

30,499

106

17

Municipal Court

Total Cases Appealed Reversed

Judge Disposed Cases Cases

Mike Allen

6,149

43

4

Nadine Allen

7,812

34

6

Timothy Black

7,954

41

6

David Davis

7,736

43

5

Leslie Isaiah Gaines

5,282

35

13

Karla Grady

5,253

6

0

Deidra Hair

2,532

5

0

Dennis Helmick

7,900

29

5

Timothy Hogan

2,308

13

2

James Patrick Kenney

2,798

6

1

Joseph Luebbers

4,698

25

8

William Mallory

8,277

38

9

Melba Marsh

8,219

34

7

Beth Mattingly

2,971

13

1

Albert Mestemaker

4,975

28

9

Mark Painter

2,239

7

3

Jack Rosen

7,790

41

13

Mark Schweikert

5,403

33

6

David Stockdale

5,371

22

4

John A. West Total

2,797 108,464

4 500

2 104

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